I’m fully conscious of how the BN’s mainstream media (MSM) would demonise and ostracise me for what I’m about to say. I’m nonetheless going to say it in simple and unequivocal term. Simply put, if I were to call the shot in N28 Kerdau by-election, I would want my party to boycott the election. Period.
The BN’s MSM would then have a field day in making PAS their punching bag and would go to town for weeks on end on this huge political meal. They would be apparently vindicated for all their claims that the opposition is bankrupt of ideas and issues to fight them on any further political contestation.
On the back of the looming 13th General Election (GE) coming ever closer, the decision to boycott would arguably be a political suicide for PAS and the Pakatan. Political analysts might argue that the opposition has finally succumbed to the psychological war of the BN’s ‘propagandist firepower’. It doesn’t take a pundit to tell you that.
That’s the usual ‘in-the-box-kind-of-thinking’ that invariably ends up in political parties quite unwilling to brace drastic unconventional ideas and maneuvers. That’s the thinking that underpins the predictable decision of most political parties of whatever ideological persuasions in the face of challenging situation.
What’s my rationale for proposing this drastic action? Am I already conceding defeat on the 11th hours? Am I now perceived as mitigating the adverse impact of another PAS’ defeat? Say what you like.
I’ve been part of the strategic teams of many a by-election especially after the 12th GE. Some we have won and others we lost. The sweetest victory was of course Kuala Terengganu and the more bitter defeat was Galas. On both occasions power changed hands.
Quite contrary to the idea of running from defeat, I have a strange feeling that Kerdau is fast making me upbeat especially towards its finishing line. I’m not commenting on Merlimau as I’m not aware of the realities on ‘ground-zero’ in that BN’s state of Melaka.
Let me say it again. I’m not looking for an upset in Kerdau but is seriously hoping for a reduction of the majority the BN’s candidate secured in the last GE.
I’m not being wishful but given our campaign ‘blitz’ which put the Pahang’s MB defenceless to the finishing line, this writer is hardly surprised if the voters so decide to protest against Umno/BN’s decades of malaise and negligence as to give PAS a victory.
No one in his right frame of mind would miss noticing that Kerdau is a ‘cowboy’ town. After 53 years Kerdau has never got on to be in the radar of development. It’s the PM’s home state mind you. So simply said again, I’m not running from defeat.
However, this piece is at best purely academic as far as a boycott is concerned, as polling is well underway for both Merlimau and Kerdau, before this writer could publish or upload this piece.
But I felt the compelling need to say and share it with the entire nation, before the results are announced this evening. I’m dead serious. If anything this piece and the likes of this writing, if widely enough read and disseminated, could very well be the genesis of a pending ‘national revolt’, not quite like the middle-eastern turmoil now on world stage that Najib dreaded.
But strangely quite alike though, as it will also represent the utter disdain and hatred of the rakyat or the citizens, for what is here now dubbed in “Political Science” as an ‘Electoral Authoritarianism’ (EA). Malaysia is now listed as one by the author of ‘The Logics of Electoral Authoritarianism”, Professor Andres Schedler (2006).
Simply defined, EA is how government abuse power as to distort and contain a true electoral competition and denies and subverts a free and fair election.
In the eyes of an enlarging enlightened sections of the Malaysian electorates and citizenry, Malaysia is indeed guilty of perpetuating ‘electoral authoritarianism’ with impunity. For that, Najib and his cohorts please take note!
If Najibs truly wants to put the “Ben-Ali-Mubaarak-Gaddafi-type Revolt” at bay in our beloved land of Malaysia, act urgently to redress and reform the many excesses and sins on ‘electoral authoritarianism’ that has continued unabated for far too long in this country!
My arguments, with respect to a boycott call on Kerdau by-election, is essentially premised on, but not limited to the following basis and evidences.
A day after DMK announced its decision to pull out of the Congress-led UPA government, the party said today that its ministers would submit their resignation tomorrow.
"Our ministers will go to Delhi to submit their resignation tomorrow," DMK senior leader and Lok Sabha MP, T R Baalu, told reporters at the party headquarters Anna Arivalayam here.
The party has six members in the Union Cabinet including M K Alagiri and Dayanidhi Maran.
Baalu also said that no one from Congress had got in touch with the Dravidian party after it had announced the decision to pull out from the cabinet.
The DMK, infuriated by the Congress remaining adamant over its demand for 63 seats for the April 13 Assembly polls, had yesterday announced its decision to pull out of the cabinet, saying Congress did not want the Dravidian party to continue in the alliance.
"Our ministers will go to Delhi to submit their resignation tomorrow," DMK senior leader and Lok Sabha MP, T R Baalu, told reporters at the party headquarters Anna Arivalayam here.
The party has six members in the Union Cabinet including M K Alagiri and Dayanidhi Maran.
Baalu also said that no one from Congress had got in touch with the Dravidian party after it had announced the decision to pull out from the cabinet.
The DMK, infuriated by the Congress remaining adamant over its demand for 63 seats for the April 13 Assembly polls, had yesterday announced its decision to pull out of the cabinet, saying Congress did not want the Dravidian party to continue in the alliance.
Mid-November last year, M Karunanidhi started digging the DMK’s 2011 electoral grave when he told his partymen to profess A Raja’s innocence. Raja had just put in his papers as the Union telecom minister after the 2G spectrum controversy threatened to consume him.
On Thursday, a day after the Central Bureau of Investigations arrested Raja, Karunanidhi wrote the party’s 2011 electoral epitaph through a resolution endorsed by his party’s general council: ‘Merely because Raja is arrested, he cannot be considered guilty.’
How a leader considered a master strategist could commit such a double fault in quick succession beats me. Had it been from someone with principles, I could understand the suicidal tendency. For a leader who has dropped alliance partners and party lieutenants before one could spell d-h-a-r-m-a, principles cannot be the reason for the systematic hara-kiri.
The problem with such irrational acts of self-proclaimed rationalists is that you can’t make out if they are born out of fear or foolhardiness. But once you come to understand that foolhardiness is often the flip side of fear, you see things clearer. And the seemingly irrational acts suddenly have two legitimate parents!
So, what does Kalaignar fear? Of being labelled guilty, apparently. When the spectrum issue was hotting up in November after the Comptroller & Auditor General put the loss of public money through 2G at Rs 1,76,000 crore, and pointed to several irregularities by Raja, Karunanidhi refused to remove him from the cabinet or the party post of propaganda secretary. His fear: Raja’s removal would amount to admission of guilt, which he had to share with his prodigy.
For not just the party, but part of Chennai’s first family too, Raja has been an obedient young man who earned more than just brownie points. That was a good reason to support him. But why did the leader not support him in private and disown him in public? Realpolitik, yes, wouldn’t that been a smart thing to do?
That would have silenced the political rivals and the media for a while, and even taken a bit of steam off the controversy and, probably, the probe. And the DMK would have got some time to devise new distractions before the poll bugle sounds in a couple of months.
Karunanidhi’s fears compounded when Raja was forced to quit as the telecom minister on November 15, 2010. It has now manifested as a reckless show of courage to move a resolution supporting Raja, though he was removed from the party post. This reverberated at an impressive DMK show at Saidapet in the evening. But lost in the din were some political realities-present and impending. The arrest has given more ammo to the Opposition, myriad stories for the media, and more than a migrane for the DMK.
Now, Congress, which never got to taste power since 1967, will become more demanding with the DMK. Karunanidhi’s other probable allies like PMK may try to put their feet down. When the poll bandwagons start rolling, DMK’s ousted propaganda secretary would be at the centre of the Opposition propaganda. And, if J Jayalalithaa has turned any wiser, Rs 1,76,000 crore could be the astronomical number that could be printed on placards and posters across the state.
However, it is still too early to say if DMK would go on to drive the last nail in its own coffin. For, Indian politics has shown that a foolish Opposition can bring back a foolhardy ruling party from brain death.
Thirty eight is a nice age – not too young to be taken light, not too old to be written off. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) drove home this point strongly as it celebrated its 38th birthday in style in Madurai on Monday.
For those who watched AIADMK prima donna J Jayalalithaa taking the temple town by storm on Monday, she was fighting two villains—her bete noire M Karunanidhi and his son MK Alagiri. But, for those who observed her closely, she was also fighting her hero, MGR. J Jayalalithaa spent one half of her 100-minute speech bashing Alagiri and the other, Karunanidhi. There was virtually no mention of her mentor and tinsel co-star MGR. Jayalalithaa has realised that it is time she graduated from a beneficiary of legacy to a legend herself.
AIADMK has always remained unipolar. It revolved and evolved around MGR even after his death on the Christmas eve of 1987. Twenty-two years later, having emerged from the shadows of MGR and established herself as the prima donna, Jayalalithaa is in the process of projecting herself as the best leader that could happen to the party – better than MGR. This could be a hard thing for the legions of MGR-fans to swallow, but Jayalalithaa appears to be well on her way to prove that legends are stronger living than dead.
When MGR founded the ADMK on October 17, 1972, it was a logical conclusion of a carefully crafted past. MGR was a relentless designer of his future, till fate abruptly interfered in the form of a brain tumour in 1985 and snatched away his life two years later. His difficult days with M Karunanidhi in the DMK, and Indira Gandhi's tactics to prop up a worthy opponent to anti-Emergency forces sympathiser Karunanidhi made the formation of ADMK possible. MGR was the star campaigner for the DMK, but was never given a cabinet berth. Finally, MGR took the plunge.
He was just the hero Tamil Nadu badly wanted in real. He never played a negative role. On screen, MGR never smoked or drank and always treated his women with respect. Superstar MGR was the harbinger of hope, warrior of the oppressed and messiah of the masses. He had sparkling eyes, till those trademark dark glasses hid them. He was fair.
There was at least one MGR manram (fans club) in every ward of a municipality. At the political level, too, there was enough space for a party like the ADMK. The DMK was being seen as a party predominantly of such castes as Mudaliars and Vellalars. Other castes such as Kallars, Mukkulathurs and Dalits were getting an inferior treatment in the DMK and it was only natural for them to rally behind the ADMK. The ADMK won the Dindigul Lok Sabha by-election in 1973 and the Pondicherry Assembly polls a year later.
For those who watched AIADMK prima donna J Jayalalithaa taking the temple town by storm on Monday, she was fighting two villains—her bete noire M Karunanidhi and his son MK Alagiri. But, for those who observed her closely, she was also fighting her hero, MGR. J Jayalalithaa spent one half of her 100-minute speech bashing Alagiri and the other, Karunanidhi. There was virtually no mention of her mentor and tinsel co-star MGR. Jayalalithaa has realised that it is time she graduated from a beneficiary of legacy to a legend herself.
AIADMK has always remained unipolar. It revolved and evolved around MGR even after his death on the Christmas eve of 1987. Twenty-two years later, having emerged from the shadows of MGR and established herself as the prima donna, Jayalalithaa is in the process of projecting herself as the best leader that could happen to the party – better than MGR. This could be a hard thing for the legions of MGR-fans to swallow, but Jayalalithaa appears to be well on her way to prove that legends are stronger living than dead.
When MGR founded the ADMK on October 17, 1972, it was a logical conclusion of a carefully crafted past. MGR was a relentless designer of his future, till fate abruptly interfered in the form of a brain tumour in 1985 and snatched away his life two years later. His difficult days with M Karunanidhi in the DMK, and Indira Gandhi's tactics to prop up a worthy opponent to anti-Emergency forces sympathiser Karunanidhi made the formation of ADMK possible. MGR was the star campaigner for the DMK, but was never given a cabinet berth. Finally, MGR took the plunge.
He was just the hero Tamil Nadu badly wanted in real. He never played a negative role. On screen, MGR never smoked or drank and always treated his women with respect. Superstar MGR was the harbinger of hope, warrior of the oppressed and messiah of the masses. He had sparkling eyes, till those trademark dark glasses hid them. He was fair.
There was at least one MGR manram (fans club) in every ward of a municipality. At the political level, too, there was enough space for a party like the ADMK. The DMK was being seen as a party predominantly of such castes as Mudaliars and Vellalars. Other castes such as Kallars, Mukkulathurs and Dalits were getting an inferior treatment in the DMK and it was only natural for them to rally behind the ADMK. The ADMK won the Dindigul Lok Sabha by-election in 1973 and the Pondicherry Assembly polls a year later.
On September 12, 1976, MGR added the prefix ‘All India' to the name Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. In 1977, the party stormed to power in Tamil Nadu. As the chief minister, too, MGR endeared himself to the people with humane gestures. MGR is said to have instructed the police to go soft on bicycle riders and rickshawallahs, while booking erring drivers of cars. His noon-meal scheme was a trendsetter.
“He had experienced poverty and hunger,” Cholai, who had been a speech-writer for Jayalalithaa, said about MGR when I was writing a piece on AIADMK’s 30th birthday. “And that is why he introduced the noon-meal scheme. It was not just for the school kids; even elderly people were given food.” The MGR-government was not free of corruption charges, but whenever there were allegations MGR did not hesitate to take action against the accused. As the charismatic leader proved efficient in governance too, the AIADMK struck deeper roots in the state. Tamil Nadu once again proved that good governance does not always ensure electoral wins, when the AIADMK came a cropper in the 1980 Lok Sabha elections. The DMK tactfully tied up with the Congress and the combine walked away with 38 seats, leaving just two for AIADMK, which drew a blank in the simultaneous Assembly elections in Pondicherry.
MGR faced the first major challenge in his political career when Karunanidhi got cosier with Indira Gandhi and got the AIADMK government dismissed on grounds of having “lost the people’s mandate” in the 1980 Lok Sabha polls. In fact, that was a tit-for-tat Indira Gandhi did to a similar action of the Janata Party government that came to power in 1977. For a party, till then riding a popularity wave, the action came as a catalyst to gather itself and emerge stronger. MGR went campaigning in the election that ensued with a simple question to the people: “Naan enna thappu seythen? (What wrong did I do?)” The people answered with a resounding mandate and MGR barged back to power. The AIADMK started looking invincible.
But then, that’s what Jayalalithaa too appeared to be in 2001, when her party won 134 of the 140 Assembly seats. However, in the 2006 polls, the party’s tally fell to 61. It had lost every by-election and local body polls that happened since. What is becoming increasingly obvious is Jayalalithaa’s bid to renovate the party around herself, relegating MGR’s image to a fading backdrop. In fact, she started on this project immediately after MGR’s demise, or perhaps even before that. People like Panruti Ramachandran, K Rajaram and Thirunavukarasu, who were close to MGR and who later helped Jayalalithaa nullify the splinter group headed by Janaki Ramachandran, were dropped after their utility was over. Today, AIADMK is a party of Jayalalithaa-loyalists.
Jayalalithaa, however, did not demolish the MGR legend in one stroke. She realises that it is the mighty combination of the three initials and the ‘two leaves’ symbol that are the mainstays besides her own cultivated charisma. So, there have been MGR images all over during election days. When MGR was campaigning for the DMK, his cap was carried atop campaign vehicles where the man could not physically be present. As late as in the 2001 Assembly elections, Jayalalithaa extensively used the MGR image, but MGR buntings were conspicuously fewer at the Madurai meeting.
An analysis of Jayalalithaa’s moulding as a politician reveals that she had her eyes set on the numero uno slot right from the beginning. Cholai had recollected: “Jaya was so ambitious that she wanted to become the chief minister when MGR was hospitalised.” This is substantiated by a letter – frequently reproduced by the DMK organ Murasoli – she wrote to Rajiv Gandhi pleading that she be sworn in the chief minister since the ailing MGR could not discharge the duties. There are enough indications that beneath the cloak of the symbiotic relationship between MGR and Jayalalithaa, all was not well. MGR was indeed impressed by the articulation of her reel-life heroine, and felt that she could contribute to his political growth. That is why he brought her into the party in 1982 and made her a member of the state high-level committee on noon meal scheme and later a Rajya Sabha member and the propaganda secretary of the party.
“But, at one point of time, when MGR came to know that she was getting too ambitious, he did not project her further,” Panruti Ramachandran, a minister in the MGR cabinet, had said. “There were times when MGR did not speak to her for long days.” Cholai recollected an earlier incident, which put off MGR. “In one of the media interviews, Jayalalithaa went to the extent of saying that MGR owed his popularity to her. It upset MGR so much that he dropped her from the movie Ulagam Suttrum Valiban, and paired himself with Manjula.”
Panruti in an earlier interview had spoken about the differences between MGR and Jayalalithaa. “When MGR was in Brooklyn (1984) to take treatment, Jayalalitha was sent for electioneering throughout the state. Jayalalithaa thought the huge crowds that gathered to express their sympathies with MGR had actually come to see her. She insisted that she be made the chief minister. This upset MGR. He told me we could use her for the party, but should not allow her to rule. A meeting was arranged between MGR and Jaya at the CMO. She came and fought with MGR asking for deputy chief ministership and left in a huff. ‘Partheergala,' MGR told me, to which I replied it was her political immaturity.”
Panruti said that after MGR's death, he, with the consent of Navalar Nedunchezhiyan, announced Jayalalithaa as the general secretary of the party when MGR’s widow Janaki Ramachandran wanted to take over. The party split into Janaki and Jaya factions and Janaki faction took over two weeks after MGR passed away, but the government was dismissed on January 30, 1988. Two days later, Sasikala moved into Poes Garden. Jayalalithaa realised the power of the ‘two leaves’ symbol, when it was frozen by the election commission in the Assembly elections on January 21, 1989. While the Janaki faction bit the dust, Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK garnered just 27 seats under the ‘cock' symbol. She patched up with an already disheartened Janaki and got back the ‘two leaves.’
Jayalalithaa got the right break on March 25, 1989, when she was ill-treated by the ruling DMK in the Assembly. The image of Jayalalithaa coming out of the Assembly with her hair dishevelled, Kannaki-like, and vowing to return to the House “only as the chief minister” gave her the image of a woman scorned by a male chauvinistic majority. That paid off. She did return to the Assembly, as promised, as the chief minister in 1991. The AIADMK, under the powerful lady leader looked all set to scale new heights.
That could have been a reality, if Jayalalithaa had not mistaken the people's mandate for a license to unleash a reign of abrasive power. Her five-year tenure was steeped so much in questionable deeds and deals that the AIADMK was wiped out in the 1996 Assembly elections, what with Jayalalithaa herself losing the election. GK Moopanar’s decision to walk out of the Congress to form the Tamil Maanila Congress and Rajnikanth's clarion call to “defeat the evil forces” helped DMK come back to power.
Jayalalithaa could claim the credit for AIADMK's landslide victories in the 1991 and 2001 elections, but she cannot compare it with MGR’s victory in 1977. Such was his following that his candidate, a certain Ukkamchand from northern part of the country, won hands down from the Mathuranthagam constituency.
However mighty may be her hold over the masses, it remains a fact that Jayalalithaa had won elections as the leader of grand alliances. In 1991, the AIADMK was in the company of the Congress and the elections happened just 25 days after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi on May 21. As the sympathy wave took Jayalalithaa to chief ministership, Congress was the loser. In the 2001 polls, too, the Congress was part of the AIADMK combine. So were the PMK, TMC, CPI, CPI (M) and the Muslim League. In other words, the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK has never proved its own strength.
But when it comes to her party, she wouldn’t allow a second rung leadership. Party leaders are kept in a state of perpetual fear of loss. Having discarded AIADMK's Dravidian roots and now trying to overshadow the MGR legacy, Jayalalithaa proves that she is untiringly ambitious. And that is not bad.
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