Sunday, January 17, 2016

Najib Holding voters to ransom:The ultimate analysis

 .An opinion poll is always more opinion than poll. But any politician who ignores it does so at his peril. It does not provide a result, obviously, or we might not need that elaborate and expensive proposition called an election. Its sample base always sounds ridiculously thin, compared to the actual numbers that will turn up at the booth in an  general election. It is rarely accurate about seat-numbers in the kind of parliamentary democracy we have, where subjective factors like the quality and personal history of a particular candidate can create sufficient micro antipathy to reverse a macro trend.The best way to read an opinion poll is as a series. Over time, it will plot quite accurately the direction in which public opinion is moving.A government begins to slip long before it falls. If the slip is not consistent, it can be dismissed as a blip; those in politics understand that this playground is full of seesaws. But when one side of the seesaw refuses to rise over two years, then you know that the game is over for one of the two players.  Like most policy decisions in this country these days, the scheme will be declared a success or a failure depending not necessarily on the ground realities but on the political affiliations of those pronouncing the judgement. But let us try and take an objective 

 When a party has not thought things through, remarks by leaders stick in perception,

 PAS leaders a few parsimonious minutes of Najib time, setting off renewed speculation about an election alliance. PAS is anxious to partner UMNO, or face the heart-stopping possibility of being wiped out in Malaysia,  UMNO is getting better purchase in this bargain hunt. It has set aside discomfort within to restore  the grey sheep PAS,. Najib will fade away cannot offer a stable option , no matter how well-intentioned. 
Engrossing electoral battles tend to become fairy tales with a twist. Good does not defeat evil; it is never quite as moral as that. But a victor does suddenly become a huge definition of good. Oscar Wilde, a British playwright addicted to wit at the expense of drama, described bigamy as having one wife too many. He added that monogamy was the same. Najib election strategy for 2018 has acquired some Wilde overtones: no relationship is good enough.  general elections crafted by multi-party alliances,UMNO has been shedding the old faithful with the conviction of a zealot who has discovered asceticism.
Every general election eats up at least six months of governance, and perhaps nine when an administration lingers too long on its deathbed. A prevailing myth, reheated by Mahathir at his  press conference, is that this Najib still has 24 months of life in it No politician has been subject to the kind of police and judicial scrutiny readmore Najib Holding voters to ransom:The ultimate analysis

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