Thursday, December 15, 2016

PAS instinct trap a question one man ambition?

The practice of politics is often understood as being about painstaking calculation, labored alliance building and the clever use of power to grant and withhold favours in order to extract advantage. Complex race equations, the understanding of ground level realities, the weighing of who needs to be backed against whom when – these are some of the common skills that every party employs particularly when it comes to the rough-and-tumble of electoral politics. And yet, after all these exertions, what often ends up being decisive is not the cleverness of the strategies employed, but the inexorable pull of the political instincts that drive key political players.At the individual level too, instinct can often become a double-edged sword.Najib understands strength and its construction and projection better than virtually anybody else. The combination of hauteur, studied silence, and a belief in the virtues of uncompromising discipline serve to create an aura around him that puts him above everyone else by a distance. The instinct is to not engage with and be answerable to the controversies and issues of the day, and put a high price on his attention. While overall, this instinct has served him well, on the race question, an intervention by him at an early stage could have rescued the party’s attempts to build bridges. In a larger sense too, his unwillingness to rein in his perennially and indiscriminately aggressive support base has hurt the perceptions around his government. Given the fact that the pas's cultural project has not been particularly useful electorally, PAS’s reluctance to confront his base is rooted more in instinct than calculation.
But while the plight that the party finds itself in has a lot to do with a lack of instinct, the fact that it is unable to pull itself together has a lot to do with the one remaining instinct that it is beholden to- the need to preserve and protect Razak family. The only time that the party truly comes to life is when it rises to defend the family- if the party showed as much animation in playing the role of the Opposition in the streets as it does in asserting that Najib was not asleep in Parliament, perhaps it would not be in terminal decline.
Image result for Najib's Alignment towards China

Having a strong political instinct based on deep ideological belief has its advantages of course, and one has only to look as far as  UMNO to see how damaging not having a strong political instinct can be. Over the years, umno has, by virtue of having hollowed out meaning from everything that it once believed in and stood for, Malay in patronage, eking out expedient negotiations and cobbling together alliances based largely on mutual greed. The lack of any coherent and transformative political ideal that it can build a platform around has made the party largely irrelevant at a time when voter motivations are evolving.also readmore Petty political players faking nationalism :don’t extort in the name of Malay race

PAS shut out their own fellow Malaysians who want the best for Malaysia and then they expect their supporters to support them blindly.PAS is using you to bargain with Umno and Bersatu.Wan Azizah, Muhyddin and Mahathir will not fall into this trap PAS wants to accept PKR and Bersatu, the condition must be that they are prepared to dump Umno, that is unless Umno comes up with better concessions.t can a coalition of PAS, PKR and Bersatu deliver without DAP? Furthermore, the non-Muslim votes to PKR will reduce drastically if they drop DAP and form a pact with PAS. The coalition of PAS, PKR and Bersatu will be one capable coalition but will never be a formidable "winner" coalition.a ploy to split the opposition especially PKR and Bersatu from DAP and Amanah. It is obvious PAS is the "musuh dalam selimut" (enemy within) who is doing Umno a big favor by creating a rift in the opposition ahead of the next election.

Any democracy is hobbled without an Opposition. where a government wheezes, gasps and limps triumphantly to the finish line because there is no other horse in the race?where a government wheezes, gasps and limps triumphantly to the finish line because there is no other horse in the race? PAS is not a particularly reassuring template. In the turbulence between DAP and PAS, its UMNO defections strategy infected democracy so badly that it destroyed the credibility of non-umno parties. should PAS still be a player in 2018 elections. Now that PAS has allied with umno, Najib can legitimately claim to have seen everything, been everywhere. . However, nostalgia does not buy votes. Votes go to those who sell a future, not those who re-brand the past.To rephrase a management saying, instinct eats strategy for breakfast. The political gambit is prevented from becoming the truth because even in politics, it is impossible to lie about some things. Political instincts run deeper than political calculations, and these have a way of asserting themselves. Donald Trump shows us that as long as one is truthful about what one’s real political instincts are, it is possible to lie about everything else and get away with it!

The coming together of Pakatan Harapan parties - PKR, Amanah and DAP - and Bersatu on Dec 13 is the first step towards foiling Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's attempt to win the next general election by default.

Najib's game plan since 2013 has been to nullify the multi-ethnic opposition coalition by eliminating Anwar Ibrahim as its head and co-opting Abdul Hadi Awang's PAS into Umno's orbit in the hope that the opposition would then be left with no Malay giants to lead it, and would be left with only non-Malay leaders.

In that way, Najib would win by default without serious challenge from any viable alternative coalition. This is not going to happen now.

Taking a step back to look at our recent history will help us understand the context and the significance of the coming together of Harapan and Bersatu.

In the May 2013 general election, Najib did everything he could to regain lost ground for BN, yet he only ended up with 47 percent of the votes.

He fully exploited the advantages of incumbency in what is essentially a one-party state, such as an unfair electoral system, a controlled media, a state apparatus that openly campaigns for the ruling coalition etc.

In hindsight, we also know now that billions of ringgit in cash were at Najib's disposal, apart from government largesse in buying favours and support.

Yet, Najib just barely scraped through. He knew then that without a drastic reconfiguration of the political scene, Umno-BN would not win in the next election.

Najib's exit plan

If he is deemed unable to win the next general election, the Umno machinery would then have to dump him at some point. One could argue that Dr Mahathir Mohammed retired in 2003 and Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2009 because they were no longer seen to be electorally viable as leaders by the Umno machine.

But Najib can't just leave the scene the way Mahathir or Abdullah did. By now we know that he has more skeletons in his cupboard than just the Mongolian individual. The bigger scam called 1MDB is global in effect. Any of these scandals could expose him to trouble with the law.

Malaysia is living in dangerous times because there is no turning back for its prime minister. Najib will use all means available to him to stay in power.

The only way to stay in power perpetually is to destroy the former opposition coalition - Pakatan Rakyat - by coercion and co-option.

Immediately after the 2013 election, through the current Indonesian vice president Jusuf Kalla, Najib offered Anwar "reconciliation" in the hope of wooing him to bring his party PKR into the government. Anwar turned the offer down—and eventually paid the price with his personal freedom.

Few remember that Najib's earlier post-election slogan was "national reconciliation". It was meant to repeat his father Tun Abdul Razak Hussein’s feat of co-opting the opposition. But of course, father and son lived in very different times.

Anwar could have chosen the easy way out especially since he knew full well that they would come after him if he rejected the offer. The opposition coalition that exists today is largely intact thanks to Anwar's courage and readiness to sacrifice.

It was impossible for Najib to even try to entice the DAP. So that party was reserved as the racial bogeyman to be blamed for Umno's every failure. The charges against Lim Guan Eng and DAP's possible de-registration can be seen in this context, of Najib attempting to destroy the DAP where possible.

Najib turned to PAS soon after the "national reconciliation" phase with Anwar ended.

Ensnaring PAS

Since the March 2008 election, there has always been a group of PAS members who would have preferred to form a "unity government" with Umno at the state and even federal levels instead of working with PKR and DAP. The late PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, who firmly rejected the idea of cooperating with Umno, held them at bay numerous times between 2008 and 2013.

After Anwar's sacking as deputy prime minister on September 1998, two broad and opposing themes "cohabitated" in PAS. A group of PAS leaders were mainly concerned about deepening the support base in the Malay-belt states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, while others led by the late Fadzil Noor recognised the need for PAS to expand its reach to include urban Muslims and to engage with non-Muslims.

The first group has no qualms about working with Umno if necessary while the second group understood the need to widen the appeal of the party with the aim of defeating Umno in elections, together with coalition partners. Also, the first group interpreted the scripture literally while the other considered the context to be vital.

In my 2004 academic thesis on PAS written at the Australian National University, I called the first group the "purists" and the second the "mainstreamers", the latter being a Fadzil Noor catchphrase to indicate the party's ambition of becoming a national mainstream party that could rule Malaysia in a coalition government, and not merely remaining a Kelantan-Terengganu regional party of little consequence.

In January 2013, months before the election, Abdul Hadi declined to nominate Anwar as alternative prime minister should the opposition win and instead backed Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who further made clear that he was only prepared to switch to the opposition after the election.

In January 2014, Hadi objected to the Kajang Move sought to make Anwar the Selangor menteri besar and in July/August that year, Abdul Hadi again objected to Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail being the candidate for Selangor menteri besar.

PAS prefers Najib/Umno

In March 2014, the Najib-administration, initiated a major strategic shift to ally with Abdul Hadi's faction in PAS by suggesting that the Kelantan hudud enactment could be enforced if a private member's bill was presented to Parliament.

It was a move to kill three birds with one stone. First, it would divide PAS internally (separate the hardliners and purists from those who wish to broaden PAS' reach); secondly, drive a wedge between PAS and their Pakatan Rakyat allies; and lastly, split society along the cleavage between Muslims and non-Muslims.

The hudud wedge is now reincarnated into the form of Abdul Hadi's private member's bill to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965. Indeed it exhibits the dynamics and objectives of dividing the nation and cementing a Umno-PAS de facto alliance.

The 17 years of division between the purists and the progressives since 1998 finally ended with PAS officially splitting after its muktamar in June 2015 when the progressives left the party. The muktamar also resolved to cease cooperation with DAP, effectively pronouncing the death of Pakatan Rakyat.

For those who still harbour hopes that PAS under Abdul Hadi would join hands to defeat Najib's Umno, it is important not to forget the upheavals since 2013 that saw Abdul Hadi's camp preferring to back Najib than Anwar, and to work with Umno than with other opposition parties.

In the confused state of affairs since 2013, many have forgotten that the progressives who left PAS are the real heroes of our time, who fought against Najib's attempt to co-opt Malay opposition leaders into Umno's circle.

Parti Amanah Negara, the new home for the progressives, was formed on Sept 16 last year and in its wake, Pakatan Harapan was formed.

Strong Malay opposition leadership

Najib's game plan of eliminating ethnic Malay opposition leaders through the jailing of Anwar and the co-option of PAS, leaving the opposition with only non-Malay giants and very few credible Malay leaders, was ultimately foiled by a new split within Umno's own ranks.

In response to mounting pressure on the question of 1MDB and the billions of ringgit in Najib's personal bank accounts, Najib sacked Muhyiddin Yassin as deputy prime minister and Umno vice president Shafie Apdal as minister on July 28, 2015, while Mukhriz Mahathir was unceremoniously removed as Kedah menteri besar on Feb 2016.

This ultimate realignment of Malaysian politics was a glacial move. Mahathir quit Umno on Feb 29 and stunned many by making a bold presence alongside DAP’s Lim Kit Siang and many former foes on 4th March 2016 to launch the Citizens’ Declaration.

Many months later, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) was established in August and registered in September. The handshake between Anwar and Mahathir in a court room in September, as well as the emotional meeting of their wives (Wan Azizah and Siti Hasmah) in November, were iconic moments of our time, when former foes grudgingly sought reconciliation to stop the Najib juggernaut.

Mahathir and Muhyiddin’s presence at Pakatan Harapan’s inaugural convention on Nov 12 was an important milestone especially when Mahathir expressed his wish that Bersatu be admitted as a member of Pakatan Harapan.

The realignment took further shape when Mahathir spoke at the Bersih 5 rally on Nov 19, attended DAP's national conference on Dec 4 and Amanah's on Dec 10.

It took the opposition a long and emotional journey to foil Najib's attempt to win the next election by default. And in that process, we must not forget the sacrifices made by Anwar, Guan Eng and the progressives who left PAS to form Amanah.

After the long detour, the opposition is now back as a grand multi-ethnic coalition under strong Malay leadership and ready to challenge the newly aligned Umno-PAS de facto coalition.

Such is the full meaning of the coming together of Harapan parties and Bersatu on 13th December 2016.

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